How far do you agree that storms and wildfire are increasing in frequency and intensity, presenting an increasing threat to people?

AO1 – Knowledge and understanding of the cause of storms and wildfire.

AO2 – Application of knowledge and understanding to assess the changing threat of wildfire and storms on people and place.

Notes for answers

AO1

The nature of tropical storms and their underlying causes. Forms of storm hazard: high winds, storm surges, coastal flooding, river flooding and landslides.
Spatial distribution, magnitude, frequency, regularity, predictability of hazard events.
Impacts: primary/secondary, environmental, social, economic, political. Short- and long-term responses: risk management designed to reduce the impacts of the hazard through preparedness, mitigation, prevention and adaptation.
Impacts and human responses as evidenced by two recent tropical storms in contrasting areas of the world.
Nature of wildfires. Conditions favouring intense wild fires: vegetation type, fuel characteristics, climate and recent weather and fire behaviour.
Causes of fires: natural and human agency.
Impacts: primary/secondary, environmental, social, economic, political. Short- and long-term responses; risk management designed to reduce the impacts of the hazard through preparedness, mitigation, prevention and adaptation.
Impact and human responses as evidenced by a recent wild fire event.
Characteristic human responses – fatalism, prediction, adjustment/adaptation, mitigation, management, risk sharing – and their relationship to hazard incidence.

AO2

Response should acknowledge that wildfire is a natural phenomenon which is often exacerbated by human activity. It is the direct and indirect human activities, which may have contributed to create favourable conditions for the spread of wildfire. The question is whether these activities are contributing to an increase in the phenomena.
Some may reference data to support argument e.g. research suggests that large wildfires in the United States burn more than twice the area they did in 1970, and the average wildfire season is 78 days longer. Responses which argue in favour of the question may suggest that either human activity has contributed to this or that changes in local / global climate may have exacerbated the issues.
Research shows that climatic factors, especially earlier snowmelt due to warming in the spring and summer, have led to hot, dry conditions that boost this increase in fire activity in some areas. For much of the US West for example, projections show that an average annual 1 degree Celsius temperature increase would increase the median burned area per year as much as 600 percent in some types of forests.
Land use and firefighting tactics can play a role in lowering or raising risks and this human activity may feature in some responses.
Wildfire risk depends on a number of factors, including temperature, soil moisture, and the presence of trees, shrubs, and other potential fuel. All these factors have strong direct or indirect ties to wildfire.
Once a fire starts (data suggests that more than 80 percent of US wildfires are caused by people) temperatures and dry conditions can help them spread and make them harder to put out. Warmer, drier conditions also contribute to the spread of the mountain pine beetle and other insects that can weaken or kill trees, building up the fuels in a forest.
Others may consider changes in agriculture practice as causal factors. The recent wildfires in Amazonia have a direct causal link to slash burn techniques combined with a drier summer period.
With hurricanes, there is similar evidence in support of the question. Sea temperature is generally accepted as being a major contributor to the increasing intensity and arguably frequency of events.
Although scientists are uncertain whether climatic factors will lead to an increase in the number of hurricanes, candidates can reasonably argue that warmer ocean temperatures and higher sea levels are expected to intensify their impacts.
Recent analyses suggests that the strongest hurricanes occurring in the North Atlantic have increased in intensity over the past two to three decades. For the United States for example, models project up to a 90% increase in the frequency of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes.
Hurricanes are subject to two main climate influences: warmer sea surface temperatures could intensify tropical storm wind speeds, potentially delivering more damage if they make landfall. Scientists expect up to an 11% increase in average maximum wind speed, with more occurrences of the most intense storms. Warmer seas also mean more precipitation. Rainfall rates during these storms are projected to increase by about 20 percent and, as Hurricane Harvey showed in 2017, this can sometimes be the more destructive impact.
Some may consider local factors such as coastal geology as well as spring high tides, which when combined with low pressure systems, can exacerbate impacts. There is some evidence that heightened sea levels intensified the impact of Hurricane Sandy, which caused an estimated $65 billion in damages in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut in 2012. Much of this damage was related to coastal flooding.
The notion of increased hurricane frequency is debatable.
Globally, about 70 to 110 tropical storms form each year, with about 40 to 60 reaching hurricane strength. But records show large year-to-year changes in the number and intensity of these storms.
Frequency and intensity vary from basin to basin. In the North Atlantic Basin, the long-term (1966–2009) average number of tropical storms is about 11 annually, with about six becoming hurricanes. More recently (2000–2013), the average is about 16 tropical storms per year, including about eight hurricanes.

Credit any other valid assessment.

Level 4 Description (16–20 marks)

Detailed evaluative conclusion that is rational and firmly based on knowledge and understanding which is applied to the context of the question. Interpretations are comprehensive, sound and coherent (AO2).
Detailed, coherent and relevant analysis and evaluation in the application of knowledge and understanding throughout (AO2).
Full evidence of links between knowledge and understanding to the application of knowledge and understanding in different contexts (AO2).
Detailed, highly relevant and appropriate knowledge and understanding of place(s) and environments used throughout (AO1).
Full and accurate knowledge and understanding of key concepts, processes and interactions and change throughout (AO1).
Detailed awareness of scale and temporal change which is well integrated where appropriate (AO1).

Fires in Nature (AQA A Level Geography)

Topic Questions