‘The Disaster Response Curve (The Park Model) has contributed to improved understanding and therefore management of the impact of tropical storms.’

To what extent do you agree with this view?

AO1 – Knowledge and understanding of the theoretical approaches to hazard management. Knowledge of hazards associated with tropical storms.

AO2 – Application of knowledge and understanding in analysis and evaluation of the extent to which theoretical models can assist in developing understanding of the management of the impact of tropical storms. There should be some evaluation of the extent to which the statement is valid.

Notes for answers

AO1

The Park Model (some may refer to the Disaster Response Curve) – How this model can be used to identify the stages in the recovery of a community from a natural disaster. There should be knowledge and understanding of how the model can assist in the planning for future hazards and therefore improve outcomes of future of events by reducing impacts.
Human responses of adaptation mitigation and prediction in the management of hazards.
Other human responses such as fatalism and risk sharing. These may be considered as other factors which contribute to improved understanding and response to hazards.
Other models associated with natural disasters such as the Hazard Management Cycle. This model has similarities and differences with Park’s model. The role of expertise is a feature in the hazard management cycle but this is not referred to in Park’s Model.
Knowledge and understanding of the hazards associated with tropical storms. These impacts follow many similarities where the storms occur. However, there are also difference depending upon the choice of supporting material and exemplification.
Management of the hazards associated with tropical storms such as early warning, meteorological tracking, building design, evacuation planning, exclusion zones, land use planning and modification of the loss. These should be considered in the context of Park’s model, i.e. where each aspect of management fits within the model.
Impacts and human responses as evidenced by two recent tropical storms in contrasting areas of the world. This support may be used to challenge or support the thrust of the statement posed in the question.

AO2

The response should be framed in the context of an analysis and evaluation of the effectiveness of the Park Model in understanding and therefore managing the impact of tropical storms.
Analysis – By analysing the model in advance of an impending storm, planners can ascertain the normal progression through a disaster. This will enable advanced planning to take place to mitigate against the expected impacts of the storm.
Analysis – responses may explore various stages in the model and link this to management of tropical storms. More sophisticated responses may not start their analysis at stage one. Planners and managers invariably start at stage 5 ie what can be learned from a previous disaster. From this arises the mitigation strategies:
Hazard Resistant Design – this focuses on protection against both the storm surge and wind hazards. The storm surge hazard can be reduced by engineering structures such as sea walls, breakwaters, flood barriers and levees. Levee failure was a major cause of the flooding in New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina.
Building design (mitigation and/or adaptation depending on approach taken) can protect against the storm surge by raising the building on stilts, and by using concrete or brick rather than wood or straw which can be more easily swept away. Building design can do much to reduce the wind hazard.
Prediction and warning – coastal areas at risk of flooding are protected by warning systems. These aim to monitor tropical cyclone development and forecast their intensity and tracks so that the population can prepare themselves by moving to shelters or by evacuating their property and moving away from the danger area temporarily.
Predictions are based on models of atmospheric circulation and tracks of previous hurricanes. The difficult part of the process is interpreting the data for warning purposes. If the population at risk are warned and evacuated then lives may be saved. However, if warnings prove wrong there are high economic losses from evacuation and therefore lost production. There is also the impact on the population in terms of their reaction to future warnings. Too many erroneous warnings may produce complacency, and warnings must be issued in a way which will not cause panic.
Community Preparedness (mitigation and adaptation depending on approach taken) – if warnings are to be effective, the authorities and public must be aware of the specific actions to take. Dissemination of information to the public and evacuation procedures need to be planned in advance.
Land Use Planning (mitigation and/or adaptation depending on approach taken) – is most effective in the coastal zone most at risk from storm surges. Past tropical cyclone data and coastal topography can be used to identify areas at high risk. The aim is to limit development in these areas to uses more compatible with flooding such as beaches and parkland.
Beware of lengthy description of management strategy. There should be clear reference to the extent to the strategy ‘fits’ within Park’s Model and has contributed to improved understanding and therefore response. Some may evaluate each approach, but this must be undertaken within the context of the question.
Analysis – There are a variety of time scales in which the Park Model operates could take in response to this question. Some may frame their responses within these different time scales. Management at different time scales:
Short term – Stage 1 – eg prediction
Medium term Stages 2, 3 and 4 – eg relief efforts, initial recovery aiming for normality
Longer term – Stage 5 – eg revised management plans aiming to prevent repetition, rebuilding and improving systems of prediction and protection, investment to restore/improve normality.
Evaluation – Some may refer to alternative models which provide a contrasting approach to hazard management. The hazard management cycle may be compared with the Park model.
Evaluation – Whatever the approach, there should be some explicit evaluation which addresses the extent to which the Park Model is useful. Students are free to argue either for or against the idea theoretical modelling, but this should be based upon preceding content.

Level 4 Description (16–20 marks)

Detailed evaluative conclusion that is rational and firmly based on knowledge and understanding which is applied to the context of the question. (AO2)
Detailed, coherent and relevant analysis and evaluation in the application of knowledge and understanding throughout (AO2).
Full evidence of links between knowledge and understanding to the application of knowledge and understanding in different contexts (AO2).
Detailed, highly relevant and appropriate knowledge and understanding of place(s) and environments used throughout (AO1).
Full and accurate knowledge and understanding of key concepts and processes throughout (AO1).
Detailed awareness of scale and temporal change which is well integrated where appropriate (AO1).

The Concept of Hazard (AQA A Level Geography)

Topic Questions