Preparation for Tropical Cyclones (Edexcel GCSE Geography: B (1GB0))

• Level of preparation depends on accurate forecasting and then communications but also level of development
• Developed countries are able to spend money on preparation and high-tech systems of prediction and notification
• Developing countries may find it difficult to buy satellites and monitoring systems or communicate the information to people likely to be affected
• The 4 P's are used to manage tropical cyclones: prediction, preparation, protection and planning (for the future)
• These aim to:
  • Save lives
  • Protect personal property and infrastructure

Aim	Method	Outcome
Predict:  to give warnings so that actions can be taken to  reduce the impact of a tropical cyclone	Data from satellites and radar tracks the movement of storms, computer models then predict the path the storm will take	Allows time for evacuation which will reduce the number of deaths and injuries. It also means people can protect their homes and businesses from strong winds and flooding
Protect: things that are built to protect people from the  hazard	Design buildings with secure roofs which use reinforced concrete Raise buildings on stilts Build levees (along rivers) or sea walls along the coast	Buildings are less likely to be destroyed, so less people will die from collapsing buildings and falling debris Buildings will not be flooded This reduces the risk of flooding from overflowing rivers, or from storm surges
Prepare: having things in place before the event to better cope with the event	Teach people how to prepare properly, what to put in a survival kit (e.g. first aid kit, bottled water) and how to evacuate safely	People who know how to react are more likely to survive, as they will evacuate safely  Survival kits can help those who are trapped to survive whilst waiting for help
Plan for the future:  evaluate past events to find new solutions or identify improvements	Build new homes and businesses away from areas at risk, such as the coast Train emergency services on how to react to a storm Plan evacuation routes	Areas of poverty leads to poor construction of housing which is more easily damaged: regardless of level of development

• Hurricanes frequently occur between July and October in the USA
• The Atlantic coast is the area most at risk including the states of:
  • Florida
  • Texas
  • Georgia
  • North and South Carolina
• Miami in Florida is the most vulnerable city with a 16% risk of experiencing a hurricane in any year
• The high risk has led to a range of planning and preparation strategies

Forecasting and warnings

• The National Hurricane Centre is based in Miami
  • Issues forecasts and warnings 
  • Produces educational materials to help people prepare and know what to do in the event of a hurricane
• The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operates 17 satellites some of which provide weather forecasting data
• Forecasts are communicated via TV, radio and the internet
• These are able to track the path of the hurricane as well as predict wind speeds and storm surges

Evacuation plans

• Florida and many other areas have evacuation plans and risk zones created using hazard mapping which identifies the areas most at risk

Risk zones in the Miami area of Florida

• Hurricane warnings and evacuation orders are broadcast via TV, radio and online
• Evacuation routes are clearly sign posted
• The National Hurricane Centre runs a National Hurricane Preparedness Week each year to educate people regarding the risks and how they can prepare

Flood defences

• One of the main risks from hurricanes are storm surges
• Coastal areas are more vulnerable for two main reasons
  • Sea level rise
  • The clearance of natural defences - coral reefs, sand dunes and mangroves - for development and agriculture
• The USA has invested in defences to reduce the impacts of storm surges
• Previously ideas such as sea walls and levees were seen as the best defences - a six mile sea wall along the Miami coastline has been proposed by the US Amy Corps of Engineers
• The plan is now under review and another proposal is preferred by residents:
  • Layered coastal protection with dunes, coral reefs and mangroves 

Responses

• Immediate responses include:
  • Evacuation of people from at risk zones
  • Search and rescue for people who are missing after the storm
  • Provision of shelter, medical assistance, food and clean water
• Longer term responses include
  • Rebuilding and repair of buildings
  • Repairing roads, rail, energy and water infrastructure
  • Evaluate success of evacuation, forecasts and warning systems to improve them for future hurricanes
  • Improve buildings to increase hurricane resistance

Hurricane Katrina

• A category 5 hurricane which made landfall near New Orleans on 23 August 2005
• Approximately 1800 people died
• Damage was estimated at up to US$145 billion 
• The levees built to protect New Orleans were breached in a number of places
  • Flooding led to 80% of the city being underwater
• There were many criticisms of the government response including:
  • Delays in rescuing people left in New Orleans
  • Delays in getting food and clean water to those stranded in the city
  • The Mayor Ray Nagin:
    • Failed to implement his flood plan
    • Refused to use school buses to help evacuate people
  • FEMA were criticised for the slow rate of response 
  • More people turned up at the Superdome a 'refuge of last resort' than expected which meant prepared supplies ran out rapidly
  • Communication systems failed so people couldn't reach emergency call centres

Changes after Katrina

• Partnerships with private companies to ensure that communication systems do not fail
• Improvements in recruitment and staff training at FEMA
• Levees were rebuilt at a cost of $14 billion
• New evacuation plans to ensure people without transport are able to leave

• The location of the Philippines in south-east Asia makes it vulnerable to tropical cyclones 
• The tropical cyclone season is from June to September
• It is perhaps the most vulnerable country in the world in terms of tropical cyclones being composed of many islands

Forecasting and warnings

• PAGASA the Philippines meteorological service issues weather forecasts and warnings
• When a tropical cyclone is forecast PAGASA issues Tropical Cyclone Bulletins
  • These increase from 6 hourly to 3 hourly as the tropical cyclone approaches land
• PAGASA uses Japanese and Korean weather satellites for forecasting
• A storm surge warning system has also been developed
• Government has worked with translators to ensure warnings can be communicated effectively

Evacuation and planning

• Prior to typhoon Haiyan 750,000 people were evacuated
• There are evacuation routes in major urban areas
• Hazard mapping is used to identify areas most at risk 

Flood defences

• A no build zone along the coast in Eastern Visayas
• Mangrove replanting 

Typhoon Haiyan

• Typhoon Haiyan (locally called Yolanda) was one of the strongest ever-recorded tropical storm to hit the Philippines 
• Landfall was on the 8th of November 2013
• Sea level rise (since 1900, has increased 20cm around the world) is a factor as higher seas are known to contribute to greater storm surges
• Over abstraction of groundwater has caused parts of the country to sink

The path of Typhoon Haiyan

Effectiveness of responses

Short term

• Some evacuation allowed people to move from the most dangerous areas
  • The storm was so large that nowhere was entirely safe
• Local governments in some areas failed to recognise the risks and did not order evacuations in vulnerable areas
• Emergency coordination was well funded and established quickly
  • Emergency shelter was provided to over 500,000 households
• Distribution of emergency supplies meant that within four weeks
  • Three million people had received food assistance
  • More than 35,000 people received shelter assistance
  • In Tacloban City 80% of people had access to clean water
• There are many regional languages in the Philippines which meant warnings did not get to everyone

Long term

• The 'Build Back Better' scheme ensured that houses were rebuilt to be more resistant to future storms
• Four months later 900,000 people were still displaced, with 17,000 still living in evacuation centres
  • The shelter response was underfunded and took longer to implement than expected
• Remote communities did not receive the help they needed due to poor distribution of aid
• In some areas such as northwest Leyte, there were increases in diarrhoea due to contaminated water supplies