UK Population (OCR GCSE Geography)

• At present the population of the United Kingdom stands at 67.3 million people
• Over the last 50 years, the UK's population has grown by nearly 20% (10 million people)
• By 2030 it is expected to reach 70 million people
• Growth is due to 2 processes:
  • Natural increase: where births exceed deaths
  • Net migration: where in-migration exceeds out-migration
• Migration can be split into 2 types:
  • Internal or national migration
  • International or external migration

What is migration?

• Migration is the movement of people across an official boundary, either internationally or nationally, with the intention of creating a permanent place of residence
• The UN defines the term 'permanent' as a change of residence for more than 1 year

Impact of national migration on the UK

• Migration has shaped the UK and has impacted it economically, culturally, politically and environmentally 
• The UK's economic development was the largest impact on the population density
• Prior to the 18th century, the majority of UK residents lived in rural areas, relying on agriculture as their main form of employment
• During the 19th century, the Industrial Revolution saw a rapid rise in the number of people concentrated in cities as they migrated from the rural regions seeking employment in the better-paying secondary sector 
• Now the UK is in the post-industrial phase, and the population is spread around the cities, with urban sprawl a common feature 
• This internal migration has led to the population density of the modern UK, where the majority of people live in urban areas

Impacts of international migration on the UK

• The UK has always experienced waves of migrants
  • During the 1850s Irish famine
  • In the 1950s from the West Indies, seeking employment
  • From Eastern Europe after EU enlargement and removal of barriers
  • Refugees from Syria and Ukraine etc.
• Out of the 59.6 million usual residents in England and Wales in 2021, 49.6 million (83.2%) were born in the UK and 10.0 million (16.8%) were born outside the UK. This means that about one in six people in England and Wales were born outside the UK - ONS 2021 census - International migration, England and Wales - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

• India is still the most popular country of origin, with significant migration from Pakistan, Ireland and Poland

Immigration and age structure

• Most immigrants are young with young families of their own
• This impacts the UK age structure (source: ONS 2022):
• In 2021, 28.8% of live births were to non-UK-born women; a decrease from 29.3% in 2020 
• The total fertility rate (TFR) increased for UK-born women to 1.54 children per woman; the TFR for non-UK-born women remained at 2.03 children per woman
• In 2021, the most common country of birth for non-UK-born fathers was Pakistan; and Romania was the most common country of birth for non-UK-born mothers
• The UK is becoming an ageing population 

UK's changing age structure

The changing age structure of the UK's population, 2005 and 2015

• The demographic transition model (DTM) illustrates the five generalised stages of population change that countries pass through as they develop
• The graph is based on the changes that took place in western countries such as the UK
• It shows how birth and death rates change over time and how this affects the overall population as the country develops 
• The gap between the birth rate and death rate is called natural change

The DTM shows that as population move through the stages, the gap between birth rate and death 
rate at first widens, then it narrows

The UK and the DTM

Stage	Time	Expectation
1	1700 - 1760	High fluctuating birth and death rates, population remains low and stable
2	1760 - 1870	Early expanding as birth rates remain high, but death rates being falling rapidly - natural change increases
3	1870 - 1950	Late expanding as birth and death rates decline rapidly - natural change is rapid
4	1950 - 2020	Low fluctuating birth and death rates, population remains high and stable - there is little natural change
5	2020 -	Decline? death rate begins increasing but birth rates decline further - natural change falls

• At this time it is unclear if the UK has entered Stage 5 as this is unsustainable and not desirable
• Japan and Berlin have entered Stage 5 and are struggling to find enough people to look after their young and old dependents

• Approximately 18% of the UK population are over 65
• The distribution of older people is higher in coastal areas, especially in East and South-west of England
• The UK's south coast is a popular retirement area due to warmer than average UK temperatures
• However, it is lower in Northern Ireland and Scotland and generally in big cities

• Urban core areas have the youngest average age 
  • In major conurbations the average age is 37.8 years 
  • In most remote rural areas the average age is 45.9 years

Percentage of population in age groups - rural v urban

UK urban and rural population

Ethnic diversity in the UK

• In the UK,18% of the population belongs to a black, Asian, mixed or other ethnic group (2021 Census data), an increase from 13.8% in 2011
• The city of Bristol is increasingly diverse
  • In 2011 15% of the population was from an ethnic minority group
  • By the 2021 Census, this had increased to 28.4% of the population 
    • It ranged from 17.8% in South Bristol to 52.6% in the Inner-City sub-locality
  • The change has been driven by white non-British (Polish), Black African (Somalian) and Asian (Indian) people
  • Bristol, hosts at least 45 religions, with 187 countries of birth represented and at least 91 main languages spoken
  • Within this diversity, there is a mix of cultures and this has resulted in Bristol's entertainment and hospitality industries becoming world famous 
  • The food industry is wide and varied, with the Bristol community becoming very accepting of new cultures
  • The St Paul's Carnival is hosted to integrate and celebrate Bristol's ethnic diversity and brings visitors from all over the country, boosting Bristol's economy