AQA Geography Pre-release Materials 2024: Introduction UK Housing Challenge (AQA GCSE Geography)

• The AQA pre-release materials are now available and with schools
• AQA copyright and exam regulations mean that the resources themselves cannot be shared online - you will receive or may already have received the booklet from your teacher at school
• The issue evaluation is synoptic, which means that it covers more than one topic from the specification
• The topics covered in the 2024 issue evaluation are:

Areas of the specification covered in the issues evaluation

• The materials below will provide all the background information on the issue, and key exam tips needed to tackle the questions in the 2024 Geography Paper 3 successfully
• The materials will support you to:
• Set the issue in context, including where it is and the key facts about the location
• Examine conflicting stakeholder viewpoints about the issue 
• Make an appraisal of the advantages and disadvantages
• Evaluate alternatives
• In the exam, you will need to answer a range of questions about the proposal of a new garden settlement in Kent. You will have about 35-40 minutes for this section of the exam
• There will be a series of short, skills questions (2-3 marks), followed by 6-mark extended questions and then a final 9-mark question which asks you to decide on the issue
• You will be asked whether you agree or disagree with a statement and then you will be expected to explain your answer. It does not matter whether you agree or disagree, what matters is how you justify your answer using evidence from the materials in the resource booklet and your knowledge

The issue evaluation skills guide is also here to help you work out how to interpret and use the sources that you have available in the booklet

• Towns and cities expand through a process known as suburbanisation which leads to urban sprawl at the urban fringe

The urban fringe

• Cities and towns have grown outward, from a historic centre to the urban fringe
• The urban fringe is where green, open spaces meet the built-up areas of towns and cities
• It is where:
• Housing is clustered into estates
• The countryside is eroded through urban spread/sprawl 
• Some industrial land use can be found
• Access by road is easier than in the city centre

Urban sprawl

• Issues caused by urban sprawl include:
  • Loss of farmland to build new homes
  • Impact on ecosystems: removal of trees, drainage of wetlands, destruction of habitats
  • Loss of rural way of life and character of the countryside
  • Loss of traditional 'green spaces': School fields, parks, etc are being built on
  • Creation of impermeable surfaces and surface run-off
  • Higher emissions due to car dependency (people have to commute further and there is increased traffic)
  • Higher costs for public transport and social facilities (local governments have to spread out their budgets further), which further impacts health care, fire and policing facilities
• Over 3 500 km² of rural land has been converted to urban land use over the past 25 years in the UK. This is an estimated 4 000 hectares each year
• Some urban areas have a planned and protected Green Belt on which no development is restricted, but urban areas still need to grow 
• Development in many major cities has jumped over the Green Belt and commuter settlements have formed
• The south-east of England in particular Kent, Sussex and Essex, have many commuter villages that are on or near major train lines into London and elsewhere
• These villages have seen the growth of families moving out of London into newly built large-family housing but they are too expensive for families already living in the area

• To meet the increased demand for housing, there are two options for places to build
• • Greenfield sites
  • Brownfield sites
• With all land uses, there are arguments for and against each type of site
• The Campaign for the Protection of Rural England (CPRE) argue that building on brownfield sites would provide 1.3 million new homes
• There are insufficient brownfield sites to provide all the housing needs
• Building on some greenfield sites is necessary in the UK if the demand for housing is to be met

The Pros and Cons of Brownfield and Greenfield Site Developments

Type of site	Advantages	Disadvantages
Brownfield	It helps regenerate old and disused urban areas Reduces the loss of countryside for agricultural or recreational use Services such as water, electricity, and sewage, are already in place Located near the main areas of employment Brings in economic and social benefits to old urban areas	It is often more expensive because old buildings must be cleared, and land made free of pollution Often surrounded by deprived areas, it may not appeal to wealthy people Higher levels of pollution
Greenfield	Healthier environment Close to the countryside, leisure, and recreation The existing layout does not restrict the positioning of new buildings It is relatively cheap and the rate of house building is faster Access and infrastructure are easier to build	Valuable farmland lost Encourages further urban sprawl Wildlife and habitats lost or disturbed Recreational space and attractive scenery are lost Lacks access to public transport Development causes noise and light pollution in the surrounding countryside Cost of installing services such as water, electricity, sewage, etc.

Why is there a housing shortage in the UK?

• The population of the UK has reached over 67 million
  • In 2022, there were 28.2 million households in the UK; this is an increase of 6.1% (1.6 million) from 2012
• This population is unevenly distributed
• The highest population densities are in the southeast
• As well as an increasing population, the proportion of single-person households has grown
• This has led to a shortage of housing in the UK, particularly in London and the southeast
• It is estimated that 8 million people are affected by the UK housing crisis

What is the supply of housing in the UK?

• The UK government has set a target of building 300,000 houses a year 
• The National Housing Federation (NHF) estimates that 340,000 houses per year are needed to meet the demand
• Of these, 145,000 should be affordable housing 
• The new housing supply in 2019/20 was 243 000 
• This has decreased significantly since the peak of new house building in 1966, when 350 000 new houses were built

Demand and supply of housing in the UK

• Increasingly, planning permission is being given to build on the urban fringe of towns and cities 
• Homes have also been built on the opposite side of the Green Belt, creating commuter towns and villages

Unsuitable housing in the UK

• In addition to a shortage of housing, many people live in unsuitable housing
  • Shelter, the homeless charity, estimates that 3 in 10 people live in unsuitable housing
  • Unsuitable accommodation includes housing, which is:
    • Overcrowded 
    • Unaffordable 
    • Substandard
  • Overcrowding is the main issue
    • Over 3.7 million people in the UK are affected by living in overcrowded accommodation
• Unsuitable housing leads to:
  • Ill-health
  • Disruption to children’s education
  • Homelessness
  • Unsafe conditions

House prices in the UK

Average House Price to Earnings Ratio (2022)

Region	Average house price	Average earnings	House price-to-earnings ratio
London	£534,977	£55,234	9.7
South East	£385,790	£41,377	9.3
East of England	£330,883	£38,739	8.5
South West	£298,162	£35,598	8.4
East Midlands	£234,083	£34,238	6.8
Wales	£211,942	£32,467	6.5
West Midlands	£238,647	£36,627	6.5
North West	£214,591	£35,058	6.1
Yorkshire & Humber	£194,639	£36,285	5.4
Northern Ireland	£177,265	£34,565	5.1
Scotland	£194,621	£38,070	5.1
North East	£162,692	£35,134	4.6

Source: Halifax

• London and the South East regions have the least affordable housing
• Average house prices are more than nine times the average salary
  • Mortgage lenders will usually lend borrowers 4.5 times their salary 
• In 2024, an Office for National Statistics (ONS) survey reported that an estimated 35% of people paying a mortgage or rent in the UK were struggling to afford their payments

• The high cost of housing means that more affordable homes need to be built
• Affordable housing has no agreed definition but generally refers to housing which is for sale or rent at

'what is considered an affordable price in the local area'

National Housing Federation

• • The government defines affordable homes as those which cost 80% of the average market value in the area

Supply of affordable housing

• The National Housing Federation (NHF) estimates that 145,000 affordable homes need to be built each year
  • The current supply of affordable housing is 58 000

Supply of new affordable housing