Vulnerability & Resilience (Edexcel A Level Geography)

Natural hazards

• A hazard is an event which has the potential to cause harm to the environment, people or the economy 
• A natural hazard is an event caused by environmental processes and would occur without the presence of humans
  • The term hazard is used because of the potential impact when the natural event interacts with humans

Interaction of people and natural events

• A disaster occurs when harm actually occurs to the environment, people or the economy
• The UN defines a disaster as:

‘A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society involving widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources’

Vulnerability

• Vulnerability is how susceptible an area or population is to damage from a particular hazard event
• This can be affected by a number of factors including:
  • Level of development
  • Population density
  • Size of hazard
  • Preparation and planning

Hazard risk equation

• The greater the vulnerability and the lower the capacity to cope, the greater the risk to the population, environment and economy
• The greater the hazard magnitude and the lower the capacity to cope, the greater the risk of disaster

• The hazard risk equation allows a judgement to be made regarding an area's resilience
• The equation can help explain why hazards such as the Nepal (2015) earthquake and the New Zealand (2016) earthquake can be similar in magnitude but have such different impacts
  • Almost 9,000 people died in Nepal whereas only 2 people died in New Zealand

Factors affecting resilience

• There are many factors affecting the resilience of a country or area including

Factors affecting resilience

• The pressure and release model takes into account the socio-economic context of a hazard 

Pressure model

• The pressure model demonstrates how there are a range of factors which increase vulnerability and why some areas lack resilience
• Within the pressure mode, there are:
  • Root causes - related to resources, decision making and governance, these lead to dynamic pressures
  • Dynamic pressures - relate to education, urbanisation and population change which create unsafe conditions
  • Unsafe conditions - poor quality housing and infrastructure, poverty
• These are then combined with the hazard itself to increase the risk

The pressure model

Release model

• The release model demonstrates vulnerability can be reduced and resilience increased by addressing:
  • Safety 
  • Reducing the pressures
  • Addressing the root causes 
  • Hazard mitigation

The release model

• The social and economic impacts of tectonic hazards vary 
• In developed countries, the impacts are likely to be lower but this is not always the case and depends on all the factors outlined in the PAR model

Volcanic eruptions

	Developed	Developing/Emerging
Event	Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland (2010) VEI = 4	Merapi, Indonesia (2010) VEI = 4
Impact	No injuries or deaths 700 people evacuated Disruption to flights in and out of Europe affecting 10 million passengers and costing airlines an estimated £130million a day Flooding caused by ice melt Contamination of local water supply with fluoride	353 deaths 300,000 people evacuated Crops destroyed - loss of £13 million Food prices increased Sulphur dioxide gas caused skin irritation and breathing problems About 2500 flights cancelled

• The differences in impact were not simply the result of Iceland being a developed country
  • Population densities in Iceland are much lower
  • There are a higher number of settlements around Mount Merapi
  • There was a much larger pyroclastic flow from Mount Merapi

Earthquakes

	Developed	Developing/Emerging
Event	Amatrice, Italy (2016) 6.2 magnitude	Gorkha, Nepal (2015) 7.8 magnitude
Impact	296 deaths Severe damage to buildings 80% of buildings in Amatrice old town were affected Over 50% of all buildings in Amatrice were damaged and destroyed The school in Amatrice collapsed 296 people died Landslides blocked the roads  Tourism was negatively affected Amatrice Hospital was badly damaged Cost of damage €23 billion	Over 8,500 deaths Over 20,000 people injured Electricity and water supplies cut 7,000 schools and 1,000 health facilities damaged or destroyed Almost 3.5 million people displaced Damages estimated at between US$7-10billion and about 35% of the GDP

• The differences in impact were not simply the result of Italy being a developed country
  
  • The earthquake in Nepal was of a higher magnitude

Tsunami 

	Developed	Developing/Emerging
Event	Japan (2011)	Indian Ocean (2004)
Impact	15, 853 deaths 6,023 people injured 330,000 people homeless Over 300,000 buildings destroyed Economic cost estimated at US$235 billion Damage to the Fukushima Nuclear power plant led to radiation leaks 4.4 million households	230,000 deaths 650,000 people injured 1.7 million people homeless 1500 villages in Sumatra destroyed Tourism was negatively affected - in Thailand losses reached US$25 million a month Total cost of economic damage estimated at US$9.4 billion