Edexcel International A Level Biology

Revision Notes

5.19 Models for Predicting Climate Change

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Models for Predicting Climate Change

  • It is possible to use existing data relating to global warming to make predictions about global temperatures in the future
    • Using data in this way is known as extrapolating from data
    • Extrapolated data can be used to produce models that show how the climate may change in the future
  • Global warming predictions can be used to
    • Plan for the future e.g.
      • Building flood defences
      • Funding scientific research into climate change technologies
    • Encourage people to change their activities e.g.
      • Reduce the burning of fossil fuels
      • Increase the use of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind energy
      • Reduce meat consumption
  • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, is a group of climate scientists around the world that has used existing data to extrapolate how global temperatures might change in the future under different human activity scenarios e.g.
    • If humans manage to immediately begin reducing fossil fuel use, global temperature change could be limited to around 2°C hotter than pre-industrial times
    • If humans do nothing to change their fossil fuel use, global temperature increase may exceed 4°C
  • The IPCC data can be added to other computer models on climate change to see how different parts of the world might be affected under the different scenarios

modelling-future-climate-change

Future predictions of temperature change can be modelled on a range of scenarios

Limitations of Climate Change Prediction Models

  • There are limitations to models based on extrapolated data
    • The IPCC has produced models based on several emissions scenarios, and we do not know which of these scenarios is most likely
      • I.e. we don't know how successful humans will be at cutting greenhouse gas emissions
    • We do not know whether future technologies will be successful at removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere e.g. carbon capture technologies may or may not be effective 
    • It is unknown exactly how atmospheric gas concentrations might affect global temperatures
    • Global climate patterns are complex and therefore predictions are difficult
      • It is possible that a certain tipping point in global temperatures could lead to a sudden acceleration in global warming e.g. permafrost melting may cause a sudden increase in atmospheric methane
        • Permafrost is ground that is frozen all year round
    • We don't know exactly how factors other than human activities may affect climate in the future e.g. a volcanic eruption could increase ash in the atmosphere, reflecting radiation back into space and cooling the earth

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Naomi H

Author: Naomi H

Naomi graduated from the University of Oxford with a degree in Biological Sciences. She has 8 years of classroom experience teaching Key Stage 3 up to A-Level biology, and is currently a tutor and A-Level examiner. Naomi especially enjoys creating resources that enable students to build a solid understanding of subject content, while also connecting their knowledge with biology’s exciting, real-world applications.